Axis of Next Tropical Wave Expected To Reach Lesser Antilles By Tuesday [5-Day Weather Outlook]

According to the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS), the axis of a Tropical Wave, now near 55W, is at present moving West to West-Northwest at approximately 15 kts to 20 kts. This Wave is exhibiting moderate vorticity and has been flagged with a low (10%) chance for cyclonic development over forty-eight (48) hours and a medium (40%) chance over the next seven (7) days. The axis is expected to reach the Lesser Antilles by Tuesday (23rd September, 2025), bringing medium to high probabilities for thunderstorm activity over varying areas.

A Tropical Wave, with its axis presently located near 41W, has been flagged with a low (20%) chance for cyclonic development over forty-eight (48) hours and a high (70%) chance over seven (7) days. This Wave is now moving towards the West-Northwest to Northwest at approximately 10 kts. This Wave is likely to pass to the near-Northeast of the Leeward Islands on Thursday (25th September, 2025).

The axis of a Tropical Wave has been located near 24W in the Eastern Atlantic, moving Westward at approximately 10 kts.

Looking Beyond This Outlook Period 

• A Trough/Wave across the Lesser Antilles is likely by Tuesday 30th September, 2025 into Wednesday 1st October, 2025, with medium probabilities for isolated thunderstorm activity, mainly over the Northern Windward and Southern Leeward Islands.
• As time progresses, these early analyses into the future are subject to significant variation. The Met Office said it will continue to analyze and monitor all developments, or possible developments, within our Area of Interest.

Seas

• The wind waves in the open waters to the near-East and Northeast of Trinidad and Tobago are expected to be generally near 1.5m for this outlook period.

Wind

• The wind in the near-surface to the lower mid-level over Trinidad and Tobago and the Southern Windward Islands (2,000 ft to 5,000 ft), is expected to be generally between 15 kts to 20 kts, peaking to just above 20 kts at times, for most of this outlook period. Direction is expected to be generally from the Southeast until Friday (26th) when it backs to come from the East.

Dust

• Presently, there are mild/moderate concentrations of Saharan dust in the atmosphere, becoming moderate by Friday (26th).
• Persons are advised to take the necessary precautions.

Synopsis And 5-Day Outlook 

• The axis of a Tropical Wave is likely to arrive at the Lesser Antilles by Tuesday (23rd). This increases the probability for thunderstorm activity to be moderate to high over varying areas across the Lesser Antilles.
• Weather associated with a Tropical Wave passing to the near-Northeast of the Leeward Islands is likely to give medium probabilities for isolated thunderstorm activity on Wednesday (24th) and Thursday (25th).
• Increased surface convergence and equatorial moisture advection across the Windward Islands on Friday (26th) and Saturday (27th), will bring medium to high chances for isolated heavy showers and thunderstorm activity.

Tuesday (23rd September, 2025) 

• Trinidad and Tobago: Generally fair morning, with brief showers over varying areas. During the afternoon, partly cloudy periods favouring Tobago and Northern Trinidad are expected to produce a few showers, with a medium chance for an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm. A fair night is likely.
• The remainder of the Lesser Antilles: Varying in cloudiness, with showers and a medium to high chance for thunderstorm activity.

Wednesday (24th September, 2025) 

• Trinidad and Tobago: Generally fair conditions with a low chance for an isolated heavy, late morning or afternoon shower, favouring Tobago and Northeast or Western Trinidad.
• The remainder of the Lesser Antilles: Partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with showers over varying areas are likely, along with medium to high chances for thunderstorm activity, especially over the Northern Leeward Islands.

Thursday (25th September, 2025) 

• Trinidad and Tobago: Mostly fair conditions are to be expected, but there is a medium chance for a few light or moderate showers between late morning and afternoon.
• The remainder of the Lesser Antilles: Partly cloudy, becoming cloudy at times in some areas, along with light to moderate showers and a medium to high chance for isolated thunderstorm activity, especially over the Leeward Islands.

Friday (26th September, 2025) 

• Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward Islands: Initially, a fair day is to be expected, but likely to become partly cloudy by late morning, with a few light to moderate showers. There is a medium to high chance for isolated thunderstorm development, especially over Trinidad during the early afternoon.
• The Leeward Islands: Partly cloudy periods are expected to produce a few light to moderate showers. There is likely a medium chance for an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm, especially over hilly areas.

Saturday (27th September, 2025) 

• Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward Islands: From early morning to early afternoon, cloudy periods are likely to produce showers, with a medium chance for a heavy shower or thunderstorm to develop in a few areas. Conditions are expected to become settled by late afternoon, although a few brief showers may still linger in some areas.
• The Leeward Islands: Fair periods are expected to be interrupted by partly cloudy conditions at times, with a few light to moderate showers along with a medium chance for an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm, especially over hilly areas.

The TTMS said it continues to analyze and monitor all developments within the Area of Interest. 

Please continue to pay attention to the latest forecasts, alerts, and information issued by the TTMS. 

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