Tropical Wave On Saturday To Bring Moisture Build-Up Across T&T [5-Day Weather Outlook]

According to the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS), the axis of a Tropical Wave is presently near 58W and is moving Westward at 10 kts to 15 kts. The axis of this Wave and its associated weather is expected to cross the Lesser Antilles tomorrow (Saturday 13th September, 2025).

The axis of a Tropical Wave is now near 37W and is moving Westward at 10 kts to 15 kts. The axis of this Wave is expected to cross the Leeward Islands on Tuesday (16th September, 2025), with associated weather from Monday night (15th September, 2025) to early Wednesday morning (17th September, 2025).

The axis of an Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave is now near 19W and is moving Westward at 10 kts to 15 kts. An associated area exhibiting moderate vorticity has been flagged with a 40% chance for cyclonic development within the next seven (7) days. Present numerical weather models indicate that this area is likely to pass to the near-Northeast of the Windward Islands by Thursday (18th September, 2025) or Friday (19th September, 2025), as its trajectory takes a West-Northwest to Northwest path.

Looking Beyond This Outlook Period 

• Early analysis suggests that on Monday (15th) or Tuesday (16th), an area is likely to leave the West African coast and enter the Atlantic with moderate to high vorticity. It is likely to track to the near-South of the Cabo Verde Islands. Present indications are that, if this area sustains as it tracks Westward, its vorticity is likely to fluctuate, but it can still pass across the Central or the Leeward Islands by Sunday (21st) or Monday (22nd).
• Very early indications are showing that an area of moderate vorticity is likely to leave the African West coast on Friday (19th).
• These early analyses so far into the future are subject to much variation as time progresses. The Met Office said it will continue to analyze and monitor all developments, or possible developments, within our Area of Interest.

Seas

• The wind waves in the open waters to the near-East and Northeast of Trinidad and Tobago are expected to be mostly between 1m and 1.5m for this outlook period.

Wind

• The wind in the near-surface to the lower mid-level over Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward Islands (2,000 ft to 5,000 ft), is expected to be mostly 8 kts to 14 kts for this outlook period, peaking to near 15 kts on Sunday (14th). Direction is expected to be between Southeast and South on Saturday (13th) and oscillating between East-Southeast and East-Northeast from Sunday (14th) for the remainder of this outlook period.

Dust

• Presently, mild concentrations of Saharan dust in the atmosphere will become mild to moderate from Sunday (14th) for the remainder of this outlook period.
• Persons are advised to take the necessary precautions.

Synopsis And 5-Day Outlook 

• A Wave on Saturday (13th) is likely to bring an increase in low-level convergence and moisture build-up across Trinidad and Tobago and the Lesser Antilles, with moderate to high probabilities for isolated thunderstorm activity in varying areas across the island chain.
• Trailing convergence during Sunday morning (14th), after the Wave, is likely to give medium to high probabilities for thunderstorm development over Tobago, Northeast Trinidad, and coastal to near-Eastern offshore areas.
• Weather associated with the passage of a Tropical Wave is likely to affect varying areas between the Northern Windward and the Leeward Islands from Monday night (15th) to early Wednesday morning (17th).

Saturday (13th September, 2025) 

• Trinidad and Tobago: Expected to be initially fair, with conditions becoming partly cloudy by mid-morning into the afternoon. A few light to moderate showers are likely during this period. There is a medium chance of isolated thunderstorm activity, likely over Tobago by mid-morning and over Trinidad, particularly in hilly areas by late morning into the afternoon.
• Remainder of the Lesser Antilles: Partly cloudy to cloudy conditions are expected, with showers likely over various areas. There is a medium to high chance of thunderstorm activity during the morning. It is expected to become generally fair over the Windward Islands by the afternoon. However, partly cloudy skies are likely to persist over the Leeward Islands, with a medium chance of isolated thunderstorm activity during the afternoon and evening.

Sunday (14th September, 2025) 

• Trinidad and Tobago: Pre-dawn and early morning showers are likely over Eastern coastal and near-offshore areas, with a medium to high chance of isolated thunderstorm activity. As the day progresses, it is expected to become generally fair. However, there is a low to medium chance of an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm developing over Western Trinidad or hilly areas during the afternoon.
• The remainder of the Lesser Antilles: Fair conditions are likely and expected to become partly cloudy at times with a few light to moderate showers, favouring hilly areas.

Monday (15th September, 2025) 

• Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward Islands: During the morning, fair to partly cloudy conditions are expected, with a few light to moderate showers likely over varying areas. There is a low chance of isolated heavy showers or an isolated thunderstorm. Although it is expected to become generally fair during the afternoon, there remains a low to medium chance that an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm will develop over Western Trinidad or hilly areas.
• The Leeward Islands: A mostly fair morning is expected, with a few isolated showers likely. During the afternoon, partly cloudy conditions are expected to develop, becoming cloudy by evening and into the night. There is a medium to high chance of thunderstorm activity over varying areas.

Tuesday (16th September, 2025) 

• Trinidad and Tobago and the Southern Windward Islands: Generally fair conditions are expected, with some brief showers likely over varying areas. From mid-morning to early afternoon, there is a low to medium chance that an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm may develop, particularly near hilly areas.
• The Leeward and Northern Windward Islands: Partly cloudy to cloudy periods are expected to interrupt some fair conditions over varying areas, with medium chances for isolated thunderstorm activity to develop.

Wednesday (17th September, 2025) 

• Trinidad and Tobago and the Southern Windward Islands: Likely to be mostly fair with brief showers in some areas. There is likely a low chance for a heavy afternoon shower over Trinidad.
• The Leeward and Northern Windward Islands: Partly cloudy to cloudy periods are expected to interrupt some fair conditions over varying areas, with a medium chance for isolated thunderstorm activity to develop.

The TTMS said it continues to analyze and monitor all developments within the Area of Interest. 

Please continue to pay attention to the latest forecasts, alerts, and information issued by the TTMS. 

Share this article: