Tropical Wave To Affect T&T On Wednesday And Thursday [5-Day Weather Outlook]

According to the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS), Tropical Storm Melissa has eventually formed in the Caribbean Sea this morning (Tuesday 21st October, 2025), and is at this time moving generally Westward, away from the Eastern Caribbean. Tropical Storm Melissa poses no threat to Trinidad and Tobago.

A Tropical Wave axis is now near 50W, and is moving Westward at 10 kts. There is not much convective activity associated with this Wave, but there is likely to be increased surface convergence and patches of moisture advection from Wednesday (22nd October, 2025) into Thursday (23rd October, 2025). This convergence and moisture, interacting with the local dynamics, gives a low to medium chance for an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm in some areas.

A Tropical Wave axis is now near 34W, and is moving Westward at 5 kts to 10 kts. This Wave is likely to vary in speed and show a reduction in strength as it approaches the Eastern Caribbean by Monday (27th October, 2025), but could draw increased surface convergence and moisture advection, with some ITCZ modulation, after the axis.

Looking Beyond This Outlook Period 

• At this time, looking ahead in the Area of Interest during the seven (7) days following this outlook period, there are no other significant features analyzed, except for intermittent equatorial convergence and associated moisture advection.
• As time progresses, these early analyses into the future are subject to significant variation. The Met Office said it will continue to analyze and monitor all developments, or possible developments, within our Area of Interest.

Seas

• The wind waves in the open waters to the near-East and Northeast of Trinidad and Tobago are expected to be reduced from near 2.5m to mostly 1.5m to 2m during this outlook period.

Wind

• The wind in the near-surface to the lower mid-level over Trinidad and Tobago and the Southern Windward Islands (2,000 ft to 5,000 ft) is expected to be 15 kts to 20 kts for this outlook period. Direction is expected to be between East and Southeast for this outlook period.

Dust

• Mostly mild to moderate concentrations of Saharan dust in the atmosphere are expected to be mild to moderate for this outlook period. Sensitive persons are advised to take the necessary precautions.

Synopsis And 5-Day Outlook

• A Tropical Wave is likely to produce increased surface convergence on Wednesday (22nd) and Thursday (23rd), with a low to medium chance for an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm. Generally, low-level convergence and moisture advection are producing low to medium chances for an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm, mainly near Trinidad and Tobago and the Southern Windward Islands during this outlook.

Wednesday (22nd October, 2025)

• Trinidad and Tobago and the Southern Windward Islands: Likely to be initially fair to partly cloudy. It is expected to become cloudy, sometimes by mid-morning into afternoon, with intermittent light to moderate showers over varying areas, with a low to medium chance for isolated heavy showers or an isolated thunderstorm.
• The remainder of the Lesser Antilles: Likely to be fair to partly cloudy at times, with brief light to moderate showers, favouring hilly areas, and a low chance for an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm.

Thursday (23rd October, 2025)

• Trinidad and Tobago and the Southern Windward Islands: Generally fair with the chance for a few brief showers, especially near hilly areas.
• The remainder of the Lesser Antilles: Expected to be partly cloudy with light to moderate showers over varying areas, and a low to medium chance for an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm.

Friday (24th October, 2025)

• Trinidad and Tobago and the remainder of the Lesser Antilles: Expected to be partly cloudy with light to moderate showers over varying areas, and a low to medium chance for an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm, except for the Northern Leeward Islands, where the probability for thunderstorm activity is likely medium to high.

Saturday (25th October, 2025)

• Trinidad and Tobago and the remainder of the Lesser Antilles: Expected to be partly cloudy with light to moderate showers over varying areas, and a low to medium chance for an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm, except for the Northern Leeward Islands, where the probability for thunderstorm activity is expected to be medium to high.

Sunday (26th October, 2025)

• Trinidad and Tobago and the remainder of the Lesser Antilles: Expected to be partly cloudy with light to moderate showers over varying areas, and a low to medium chance for an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm, except for Trinidad and Tobago and the Northern Leeward Islands, where the probability for thunderstorm activity is expected to be medium to high.

The TTMS said it continues to analyze and monitor all developments within the Area of Interest. 

Please continue to pay attention to the latest forecasts, alerts, and information issued by the TTMS.

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