Tropical Waves To Affect T&T Between Sunday And Wednesday [5-Day Weather Outlook]

According to the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS), at 8:00 AM this morning (Friday 10th October, 2025), Tropical Storm Jerry was located with its center near 19.8N 63.3W and continued to move in a generally Northwesterly, eventually Northerly direction away from the Leeward Islands. Heavy convective activity is impacting the Lesser Antilles (from the Northern Windward Islands, Northward) but is expected to gradually lessen as Jerry continues to move further Northward.

The axis of a Tropical Wave is presently near 40W, moving West around 10 kts to 15 kts. The weather associated with this Wave is likely to reach the Windward Islands from Sunday (12th October, 2025) into Monday (13th October, 2025).

An area exhibiting at least moderate vorticity is expected to leave the African West coast today (Friday 10th October, 2025) and could eventually reach the Lesser Antilles as a Wave by Tuesday (14th October, 2025) into Wednesday (15th October, 2025).

Looking Beyond This Outlook Period

• On Monday (13th), another Wave is likely to enter the Eastern equatorial Atlantic and could eventually reach the Lesser Antilles as a Wave by Saturday (18th) or Sunday (19th).
• As time progresses, these early analyses into the future are subject to significant variation. The Met Office said it will continue to analyze and monitor all developments, or possible developments, within our Area of Interest.

Seas

• The wind waves in the open waters to the near-East and Northeast of Trinidad and Tobago are expected to be generally near 2m and reducing to near 1.5m by Tuesday (14th) of this outlook period. Although there has been a discontinuation of the Hazardous Seas (Easterly Swells) Yellow Level Alert, all marine interests should continue to assess near-shore sea conditions before venturing into any marine activity, as lingering intermittent larger breakers in the surf zone are still expected over the next twenty-four (24) hours, especially at High Tide.

Wind

• The wind in the near-surface to the lower mid-level over Trinidad and Tobago and the Southern Windward Islands (2,000 ft to 5,000 ft) is expected to be 15 kts to 20 kts until Monday (13th), after which it reduces to 10 kts to 15 kts for the remainder of this outlook period. Direction is expected to be generally East to East-Southeast until Monday (13th), after which it veers to come mainly from the Southeast for the remainder of this outlook period.

Dust

• Mostly moderate concentrations of Saharan dust are present in the atmosphere for Trinidad and Tobago until Sunday (12th), when the concentration becomes mostly mild for the remainder of this outlook period. Immediately following the passage of Tropical Storm Jerry, the dust concentration is expected to be moderate to high across the remainder of the Lesser Antilles for this outlook period. Sensitive persons are advised to take the necessary precautions.

5-Day Synopsis

• Convective activity associated with Tropical Storm Jerry is impacting the Lesser Antilles today (10th) but is expected to gradually lessen as Jerry continues to move further Northward.
• The weather associated with Tropical Waves is likely to reach the Windward Islands by Sunday (12th) and bring medium to high chances for isolated thunderstorms between Sunday (12th) and Wednesday (15th). The higher chances for thunderstorm activity are likely on Monday (13th) and Tuesday (14th).

Saturday (11th October, 2025)

• Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward Islands: It is likely that the weather will be partly cloudy, at times cloudy, during the morning to mid-afternoon, with light to moderate showers interrupting some sunshine over varying areas. There is a medium to high chance for isolated thunderstorms, especially over Tobago and near-shore to offshore areas during the morning, and over Central to Western Trinidad by late morning into mid-afternoon.
• The Leeward Islands: Cloudy periods over the Northern Leeward Islands with a medium to high chance for isolated thunderstorms, mainly during the morning. Elsewhere, a few light to moderate showers are likely to interrupt fair conditions. It is expected that there will be a medium chance for an isolated heavy shower, especially near hilly areas.

Sunday (12th October, 2025)

• Trinidad and Tobago and the Southern Windward Islands: Partly cloudy during the morning to mid-afternoon with a few light to moderate showers over varying areas, interrupting some sunshine, is expected. There is a medium to high chance for isolated heavy showers or a thunderstorm over Eastern to Eastern offshore areas during the morning and over Central to Western Trinidad from late morning into mid-afternoon.
• The Northern Windward and Leeward Islands: A few light to moderate showers over varying areas, interrupting fair conditions are likely. There is likely a low to medium chance for an isolated heavy shower, especially near hilly areas.

Monday (13th October, 2025)

• Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward Islands: Partly cloudy, at times cloudy during the morning, with light to moderate showers over varying areas, and a medium to high chance for isolated thunderstorms, especially over Tobago, Northern Trinidad, and near offshore areas. From late morning to mid-afternoon, it is expected that there will be a medium chance for isolated thunderstorm development over Central to Western Trinidad.
• The Leeward Islands: Partly cloudy periods with a few light to moderate showers over varying areas are likely to interrupt otherwise fair conditions. There is a low to medium chance for an isolated heavy shower, especially near hilly areas.

Tuesday (14th October, 2025)

• Trinidad and Tobago and the Southern Windward Islands: Partly cloudy periods are likely to interrupt otherwise fair conditions during the morning, with a few light or moderate showers in some areas. By late morning or early afternoon, there is a medium to high chance for isolated thunderstorm activity, favouring Tobago and Central to Northern Trinidad.
• The remainder of the Lesser Antilles: Mostly fair conditions are expected with a few brief showers and a low to medium chance for an isolated heavy shower, mainly near hilly areas.

Wednesday (15th October, 2025)

• Trinidad and Tobago: Fair and sunny conditions are expected during the morning, but by late morning to early afternoon, there is a high chance for a thunderstorm to develop over Central to Western Trinidad, and a low chance for an isolated heavy shower over Tobago.
• The remainder of the Lesser Antilles: Fair with partly cloudy periods developing over varying areas, with low to medium chances for an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm to develop, mainly near hilly areas.

The TTMS said it continues to analyze and monitor all developments within the Area of Interest. 

Please continue to pay attention to the latest forecasts, alerts, and information issued by the TTMS.

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