Tropical Waves To Affect T&T On Wednesday And Sunday [5-Day Weather Outlook]
According to the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS), this morning (Tuesday 14th October, 2025), Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located with centre near 17.3N 44.1W, with movement towards the Northwest. Lorenzo is expected to turn towards the North in the next twenty-four (24) hours and poses no threat to Trinidad and Tobago and the Lesser Antilles.
The axis of a Wave/Trough is presently near 56W, moving Westward at approximately 10 kts – 15 kts. Some convergence and moisture build-up is already producing cloudiness and showers over the Windward Islands. The axis is expected to cross the Lesser Antilles by late today (Tuesday 14th October, 2025) into tomorrow morning.
A Tropical Wave with an axis near 33W is presently moving Westward at 10 kts – 15 kts. This Wave is not expected to show development, but associated convergence and moisture are likely to reach the Southern Windward Islands by Friday (17th October, 2025).
The Met Office notes that a Tropical Wave in the far-Eastern Atlantic with its axis near 23W/24W is moving Westward at approximately 10 kts, and its axis is expected to reach the Lesser Antilles by Sunday (19th October, 2025). This Wave is at present exhibiting moderate vorticity. Strong convergence and moisture build-up associated with this Wave, with high chances for thunderstorm activity, are likely over Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward Islands from Saturday (18th October, 2025).
Looking Beyond This Outlook Period
- At this time, there is no significant feature likely in the Area of Interest during the seven (7) days following this outlook period, except for intermittently strong equatorial convergence and associated moisture advection.
- As time progresses, these early analyses into the future are subject to significant variation. The Met Office said it will continue to analyze and monitor all developments or possible developments within our Area of Interest.
- The wind waves in the open waters to the near-East and Northeast of Trinidad and Tobago are expected to be mostly near 1.5m but rising to above 2m on Saturday (18th) and Sunday (19th).
- The wind in the near-surface to the lower mid-level over Trinidad and Tobago and the Southern Windward Islands (2,000 ft to 5,000 ft) is expected to be near 10 kts to 15 kts for this outlook period, peaking to 17 kts on Thursday (16th) and dipping to as low as 8 kts on Friday (17th). Direction is expected to be mostly from the Southeast until Friday (17th), when it is likely to begin to “back” to come generally from the East for the remainder of this outlook period.
- Mostly mild to moderate concentrations of Saharan dust will be present in the atmosphere for this outlook period. Sensitive persons are advised to take the necessary precautions.
- On Wednesday (15th), low-level convergence and Southeasterly winds associated with the passage of the axis of a Wave/Trough are likely to produce showers and medium to high chances for thunderstorm activity.
- On Friday (17th), convergence across the Southern Windward Islands associated with a relatively weak Tropical Wave could produce a few showers to interrupt the sunshine. There will be a low chance for an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm.
- On Saturday (18th), convergence and high moisture build-up ahead of the axis of a Tropical Wave are expected to produce cloudiness and showers and medium to high chances for thunderstorm activity across Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward Islands.
- On Sunday (19th), a Tropical Wave is expected to produce cloudiness and showers and medium to high chances for thunderstorm activity across Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward and Southern Leeward Islands.
- Trinidad and Tobago: Fair and sunny conditions are expected during the morning, but by late morning to early afternoon, there is a high chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop over Trinidad and a low chance for an isolated heavy shower over Tobago.
- The remainder of the Lesser Antilles: Mostly fair and sunny weather conditions are to be expected, except for a medium to high chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop over the Southern Leeward Islands during the late morning or afternoon.
- Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward Islands: Mostly fair and sunny conditions are to be expected, but there is a low chance for a late morning, heavy shower over Trinidad or near hilly areas.
- The Leeward Islands: Partly cloudy to cloudy with light to moderate showers over varying areas and a medium to high chance for isolated thunderstorm activity.
- Trinidad and Tobago, the Windward and Southern Leeward Islands: Mostly fair and sunny conditions are expected. It is likely to be partly cloudy over Trinidad and Tobago during the afternoon and evening. Brief showers are expected over varying areas, with a low chance for an isolated heavy shower to develop.
- The Northern Leeward Islands: Partly cloudy to cloudy with light to moderate showers over varying areas and a medium to high chance for thunderstorm activity.
- Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward Islands: Likely to be partly cloudy to cloudy with light to moderate showers over varying areas, and a medium to high chance of isolated thunderstorms.
- The Leeward Islands: Likely to be generally fair, but with brief light or moderate showers expected over varying areas.
- Trinidad and Tobago, the Windward and Southern Leeward Islands: Likely to be partly cloudy to cloudy with light to moderate showers expected over varying areas. There is a medium to high chance for thunderstorm activity.
- The Northern Leeward Islands: Likely to be generally fair, but with brief light or moderate showers expected over varying areas.
Please continue to pay attention to the latest forecasts, alerts, and information issued by the TTMS.
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