Tropical Wave To Cross T&T On Tuesday [5-Day Weather Outlook]

According to the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS), the axis of a Tropical Wave, analyzed to be at 52W, is expected to cross Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward Islands tomorrow (Tuesday 9th September, 2025) and is likely to create an increase in low-level convergence and moisture build-up across Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward Islands.

A surface low-pressure area near 46W is presently exhibiting moderate vorticity and is producing a cluster of thunderstorm activity at this time. Present analysis is showing that this area is likely to diminish in strength and to stall for a few days, after which it could eventually cross the Lesser Antilles as a trough by Sunday night (14th September, 2025) or Monday morning (15th September, 2025).

The axis of a Tropical Wave is at present located near 21W in the far-Eastern Atlantic and is moving Westward at around 5 kts.

Looking Beyond This Outlook Period 

• Early analysis suggests that by Wednesday (10th September, 2025), an area of low to moderate vorticity is expected to develop to the South of the Cabo Verde islands. At this time, the indication is that this area could show a temporary increase in vorticity as it crosses the Tropical Atlantic, but it is likely to cross the Leeward Islands as a Wave around Thursday 18th September, 2025.
• These very early analyses that far into the future are subjected to much variation as time progresses. The Met Office said it will continue to analyze and monitor all developments, and possible developments, within our Area of Interest.

Seas

• The wind waves in the open waters to the near-East and Northeast of Trinidad and Tobago are expected to be mostly near 1.5m for this outlook period, peaking at 1.6m on Wednesday (10th September, 2025).

Wind

• The wind in the near-surface to the lower mid-level over Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward Islands (2,000 ft to 5,000 ft), is expected to be generally 15 kts to 20 kts until Thursday (11th September, 2025), when it begins to gradually reduce to 5 kts to 10 kts for the remainder of this outlook period. Direction is expected to be between East-Southeast to East-Northeast until Thursday (11th September, 2025), when it becomes generally light and variable for the remainder of this outlook period.

Dust

• Generally mild to moderate concentrations of Saharan dust will be present in the atmosphere during this outlook period.
• Persons are advised to take the necessary precautions.

Synopsis And 5-Day Outlook 

• A Wave on Tuesday (9th September, 2025) is likely to create an increase in low-level convergence and moisture build-up across Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward Islands.
• It is likely that generally varying low-level convergence and intermittent moisture advection will persist during this outlook period. These conditions are expected to be enhanced by local dynamics, particularly over the Windward Islands.

Tuesday (9th September, 2025) 

• Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward Islands: Initially, fair conditions are expected, becoming partly cloudy to cloudy by mid-morning. A few light to moderate showers are likely, with a medium to high chance of isolated heavy showers or a thunderstorm developing between late morning and afternoon.
• The Leeward Islands: Mostly fair conditions are expected overall. However, partly cloudy conditions are likely over the Northern islands, with a few showers and a medium chance of isolated thunderstorms during the morning.

Wednesday (10th September, 2025) 

• Trinidad and Tobago: During the pre-dawn and early morning hours, showers are expected to develop, particularly over coastal and near-offshore areas. There is a low to medium chance of isolated thunderstorm activity, especially to the near-East of Trinidad and the near-South of Tobago. Otherwise, fair conditions are likely for much of the day. However, these conditions may be interrupted by the development of a heavy shower or thunderstorm over Western Trinidad or near hilly areas during the afternoon, with a low to medium chance of occurrence.
• The remainder of the Lesser Antilles: Generally fair conditions are expected. However, brief light to moderate showers are likely to occur over varying areas, with a medium chance of a heavy shower developing near hilly areas.

Thursday (11th September, 2025) 

• Trinidad and Tobago: Pre-dawn and early morning showers are expected, mainly affecting coastal and near-offshore areas. There is a medium to high chance of isolated thunderstorm activity, particularly over the Gulf of Paria, the near-East of Trinidad, and the near-South of Tobago. For the remainder of the day, fair conditions are likely. However, these may be interrupted during the afternoon by the development of a heavy shower or thunderstorm over Western Trinidad or near hilly areas, with a medium chance of occurrence.
• The remainder of the Lesser Antilles: Generally fair conditions are expected. Brief light to moderate showers are likely across varying areas, with a medium chance of a heavy shower developing near hilly areas.

Friday (12th September, 2025) 

• Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward Islands: Partly cloudy conditions are expected, with a few light to moderate showers occurring over varying areas. From mid-morning through the afternoon, there is a low to medium chance of isolated heavy showers or a thunderstorm.
• The Leeward Islands: Generally fair conditions are expected. However, brief light to moderate showers may interrupt conditions in a few areas, with a medium chance of a heavy shower developing near hilly areas.

Saturday (13th September, 2025) 

• Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward Islands: Initially fair conditions are expected, becoming partly cloudy by late morning into the afternoon. A few light to moderate showers are likely, with a medium to high chance of thunderstorm activity, mainly over Trinidad.
• The Leeward Islands: Generally fair conditions are expected, with a brief shower in a few areas. There is a medium chance of a moderate to heavy shower developing near hilly areas.

The TTMS said it continues to analyze and monitor all developments within the Area of Interest. 

Please continue to pay attention to the latest forecasts, alerts, and information issued by the TTMS. 

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