T&T 5-Day Weather Outlook: What To Expect From Saturday Through Wednesday

According to the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS), there are no areas of interest (for tropical cyclonic development) to the East of the Lesser Antilles at this time. 

The 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season officially ended on Saturday 30th November, 2024, while the Rainy Season is still ongoing.

At present, there is a long and relatively straight equatorial fetch, which is likely to cause a relative increase in the near-surface wind speed.

Over this outlook period, the near-surface to mid-level wind speed is likely to show a moderate increase, giving intermittently breezy conditions and, at times, being windy, especially near showers and in elevated areas.

The frontal activity in the Central sub-tropical Atlantic that has been influencing shear-lines across Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward Islands over the past few days, has moved away to the far-North Atlantic, and its effects are no longer existent over the area.

An approaching frontal system from the West-Northwest and Northwest is likely to influence weak perturbations in the Easterly tropical airflow across the Lesser Antilles.

As cooler air from the North encroaches on the tropics, there is likely to be noticeably cooler air temperatures, especially during the pre-dawn hours.

The seas in the open waters to the East and Northeast of Trinidad and Tobago are likely to be moderate to rough for this outlook period. Persons are advised to maintain caution in marine activities.

The Met Office notes that presently, there is a mild concentration of Saharan dust in the atmosphere. While there has been some settling from the West-most tip of an approaching plume of Saharan dust across the equatorial Atlantic, it is expected that by Saturday (4th January, 2025), the atmospheric dust quantities would be mostly moderate for this outlook period. Persons sensitive to the dust are advised to take the necessary precautions.

While there is a gradual reduction, analysis is still indicating lingering atmospheric moisture available for precipitation over the next couple of days, after which there is likely to be a noticeable drying out.

Varying surface convergence and patches of moisture advection, accompanied by weak perturbations on Saturday (4th January, 2025) into Sunday (5th January, 2025) and also on Tuesday (7th January, 2025), are the most likely features for precipitation-production over Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward Islands; otherwise, generally fair conditions are likely during the outlook period.

With the occurrence of any heavy shower or thunderstorm, winds can become gusty, with strong down-draughts possible.

In the event of thunderstorm activity, be mindful of lightning discharges. Street or flash flooding is very likely in the vicinity of showers.

Precipitation over elevated terrain raises the risk of landslips or landslides.

Down-draughts from heavy showers or thunderstorms can also cause choppy seas in the vicinity.

Saturday (4th January, 2025) 

• Weak surface convergence across Trinidad and Tobago is likely to produce a few brief showers in a generally fair day. Local dynamics and topography give a low chance for an isolated heavy shower to develop near hilly areas. Increasing surface convergence and moisture advection across the Windward and Southern Leeward Islands is expected to give partly cloudy to cloudy periods with light to moderate showers and a medium chance for isolated heavy showers or a thunderstorm.

Sunday (5th January, 2025) 

• Over Trinidad and Tobago, the Windward and Southern Leeward Islands, from just after Midnight into the early morning, a surface perturbation, causing moisture convergence, is expected to produce showers over varying areas. There is a moderate chance for isolated heavy showers or a thunderstorm. During the pre-dawn hours, the chances become high for isolated thunderstorms to develop in the Eastern to Southeastern, near-offshore, and coastal areas of Trinidad and Tobago. Conditions are expected to become settled during the morning, but a few brief showers are likely until afternoon. Mostly fair conditions are expected over the Northern Leeward Islands.

Monday (6th January, 2025) 

• As a ridge of high pressure begins to push into the Lesser Antilles from the North, generally fair conditions are expected over most of the island chain. Trinidad and Tobago, being at the Southern extremities of this ridge, is likely to see a relative increase in surface convergence from the Northeast. This, together with patches of moisture advection, can produce a few brief showers with a low chance for a heavy shower to develop near hilly areas.

Tuesday (7th January, 2025) 

• Over Trinidad and Tobago, the Windward and Southern Leeward Islands, a weak surface perturbation, with some moisture advection, is expected to produce partly cloudy patches with light to moderate showers over varying areas and a medium chance for an isolated heavy shower near hilly areas.

Wednesday (8th January, 2025) 

• Trailing convergence from the recently passed perturbation, coming from the Southeast, is likely to push patches of moisture across Trinidad and Tobago and the island chain, with some light to moderate showers interrupting otherwise fair conditions in varying areas.

The TTMS said it continues to analyze and monitor all developments within the Area of Interest.

Please continue to pay attention to the latest forecasts, alerts, and information issued by the TTMS.

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